Capital increase in this stock. Possible change of control?

This stock has had a poor performance in the last 2 years compared to its local players.

Share price evolution in the last 2 years of Itaucorp (in candles), and of BCI, Santander and Chile

Its performance in terms of profitability has not been good either

What it does have in its favor is that it looks cheap with a Price to Book Value ratio of 0.43x. Apart from the Corpgroupbanking default that I mentioned last year (which is still in process and information can be found in the press), it seems that the stock would have stopped its fall at Ch$ 1.70 app. at the end of July (around the minimum reached in March 2020 in the midst of the Covid crisis), after the announcement on the 13th of that month, of the approval of the capital increase for USD1 billion at a ratio of 0.9 new shares per 1 old and a subscription price of $ 1.80 per share.

The interesting thing about this event is to speculate if Corpgroup Banking (owner of 26% of ItauCorpbanca), will subscribe the corresponding percentage. That amount would be equivalent to almost USD270mm. After the "reorganization" process in which this company finds itself, it is reasonable to think about the possibility that it will not attend the capital increase, in which case, one could speculate on a change of controller if Itau subscribes what Corpgroup does not. In this article we do not spend time studying the statutes of the control agreements between both entities (those are public), but only to raise this scenario. If this picture is given, it is also reasonable to think that CorpGroup Banking does not sell its options at "Ch$2" but at a considerable premium that justifies the change in control.

If the above were correct, Itau's price could end up flying in October or November. If that does not happen, I think that Corpgroup Banking's exit would do good not only to the Bank's management but also to its image, so this event could represent a turning point in the stock's trajectory.
 

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